BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 3 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. There are only 14 more seats remaining so there won’t be far more time to qualify if you are trying to. I will attempt to get my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a cash game play of mine . There are better struggles to target when we are looking for 1st round knockouts however I will be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is exactly why he is the cash play of this week. I really don’t think Moret has the ability to really test the chin of Gordon’s that has seemed to be his biggest weakness recently. With the pace Gordon sets I think he has 100+ upside into a decision win and I really don’t see him getting finished here so he should have a good floor. I think his flooring in a triumph is probably 80+ as well that is totally fine for money games. This is a catchy feeble, however this is my personal favorite money game spot of the week.
GPP drama of the week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I needed to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is probably that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his $8.8k salary which will put him on the $25k lineup. He’ll be quite chalky this week though so make sure you load him up if you are multi-entering if you want to find leverage over the area. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here as well, so I’ll be targeting both sides of the fight, but I do see 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here which can beat a good deal of the fighters priced above him.
Underdog play of this week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I’m not picking any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who’d be considered an underdog I think will win and I did pick him put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him for $200 less than Greene but I wouldn’t be shocked if Albini was the favored on the betting line going into the fights. With these men being Heavyweights, it doesn’t take much to acquire a knockout and if Albini can do that at $8k he can give me a rush at the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight also and she burnt me scoring a 1st round submission. I am going back into the fade here though and hoping the same doesn’t happen. On a card where I am picking basically every favorite, I’d rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her $8.5k price tag. I am not sure that moving into the ground is at her best interest in this fight and when she remains standing I do not see her paying off worth in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, however that I will probably only make ~20 and she won’t make my participant pool with that many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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